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KMID : 1024520110200030321
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Journal of the Environmental Sciences
2011 Volume.20 No. 3 p.321 ~ p.327
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Uncertainty Analysis for Parameter Estimation of Probability Distribution in Rainfall Frequency Analysis Using Bootstrap
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Seo Young-Min
Park Ki-Bum
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Abstract
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Bootstrap methods is the computer-based resampling method that estimates the standard errors and confidence intervals of summary statistics using the plug-in principle for assessing the accuracy or uncertainty of statistical estimates, and the BCa method among the Bootstrap methods is known much superior to other Bootstrap methods in respect of the standards of statistical validation. Therefore this study suggests the method of the representation and treatment of uncertainty in flood risk assessment and water resources planning from the construction and application of rainfall frequency analysis model considersing the uncertainty based on the nonparametric BCa method among the Bootstrap methods for the assessement of the estimation of probability rainfall and the effect of uncertainty considering the uncertainty of the parameter estimation of probability in the rainfall frequency analysis that is the most fundamental in flood risk assessement and water resources planning.
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KEYWORD
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Rainfall frequency analysis, Probability distribution, Parameter, Uncertainty, Bootstrap
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